March 6, 2022

So my friend Dylan is probably better at Wordle than I am. And he likes to pick a different word to start with each day, so that maybe someday he's able to "Get It In One"
But his strategy reminded me of an old bit of math weirdness that made me thinking he making a mistake... if you're playing some kind of small, repeated lottery (which trying to guess Wordle on the first try basically is) than the best strategy is to pick the same value and let the win come to you, so to speak, rather than trying to "chase the win" by guessing a new value each day. This is especially true in Wordle, where the game is slowly working its way through an ordered list and will eventually hit everything in that list (not counting the words it has already played)
Without actually looking at the Wordle lists, I made up a computer simulation (Dylan may be better at Wordle but I'm better at computer geek stuff.) - https://toys.alienbill.com/gii1/ - Starting on day 250, "Steady Eddie" picked a word and starts with it every day. "Hopeful Henry" picks a random word to start with each day.
When you run this simulation a lot, Eddie beats Henry over 2:1, in terms of Eddie gets it in one earlier. In fact, Henry NEVER gets it in one about 40% of the time. (Eddie fails to get it in one about 10% of the time, reflecting how we're starting on day 250 of 2300)
So, I dunno. I like to always start with ADIEU, and then follow up with a word with lots of Rs and Ss based on what the vowels are looking like. And I'd be willing to bet $20 that I get it in one earlier than Dylan (assuming no one cheats 😃 ) -- on the other hand, on the day ADIEU is first, I will have my joy in getting 1/6 diminished with all my fellow ADIEU-ers sharing the glory, while if/when Dylan gets it, it's much more likely to be a unique accomplishment that day, so maybe his strategy is better after all!